Panel regression methods are used to estimate the links between nonprofits’ revenues by source and the uses of those revenues. While charities spend most types of revenue on program services, they overwhelmingly save revenue from donations. This is true for all types of charity by National Taxonomy of Exempt Entities code. This saving is not driven by donor restrictions or by short-term strategic shifts, but is consistent with expense smoothing over time. Policymakers should consider effects of donation incentives and government grants on the timing of outputs that result from different revenue sources.
This paper estimates the effect of the charitable contribution tax deduction on charities' donation revenue from charities' tax filings. A one percent increase in the tax cost of giving causes charitable receipts to fall by about four percent, an effect three times larger the consensus in the literature. Further analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity in the tax response by subsector: health care and home care are more tax-sensitive than other charities, while higher education and arts are less tax-sensitive. The results are consistent with substantial tax response heterogeneity within the sample and between sampled and unsampled charities, implying that the mean tax elasticity of charitable contributions is a poor predictor of tax incentive effects for individual charities.
“How Johnson Fought the War on Poverty: The Politics and Economics of Funding at the Office of Economic Opportunity,” with Martha J. Bailey. The Journal of Economic History 74(2): 351-388, June 2014. NBER Working Paper No. 19860. Winner of the Arthur H. Cole Prize for the the best article published in the Journal of Economic History from July 2013 to July 2014. Abstract | Paper [PDF] | More
The successes and failures of President Lyndon Johnson’s “War on Poverty” have been debated for decades. This paper contributes a novel quantitative analysis to the vast historical literature on the War on Poverty’s political economy. We find that the Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) overwhelmingly directed its funds toward high-poverty areas, while also investing in Democratic strongholds and areas with bigger swings in favor of the Democrats in the 1964 Presidential election. Finally, we find quantitative support for Alston and Ferrie’s hypothesis about the role of the Southern paternalism in shaping the modern U.S. welfare state.
Though historical accounts have linked the overcrowded conditions on the Middle Passage to slaves’ ill health and high mortality rates, results from a large literature in economic history have not borne out these assertions. This paper demonstrates the importance of a statistical explanation: missing data. Studies finding no positive relationship between vessel crowding and Middle Passage mortality are driven by an unrepresentative sample of slave voyages. Using simple methods to correct for missing data on voyage duration, analysis of the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade Database shows a strong and robust association between crowded slave voyages and slave mortality, consistent with historical accounts.